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Career Development System
Career Prep Report Card

“The biggest obstacle to economic growth in Michigan today is a lack of skilled workers…” “The population is not growing very quickly, and most businesses are constrained by their lack of ability to find skilled workers.” Jeff Kaczmarek, senior vice president of Business Services for the Michigan Economic Development Corp. quoted in Waterford Eccentric, May 4, 2000

This report presents the results of a comprehensive environmental scan of factors effecting business and industry in Wayne County (except Detroit) and Monroe County. The work was funded by Southeast Michigan Community Alliance.

1. Demographics Level and rate of change in population as well as migration flows Population characteristics - changing composition by age, sex, ethnicity, income categories and among key groups such as persons with disabilities

The population for Monroe County has been increasing steadily since 1990, with a predicted 23.3% change by 2020. Wayne County (excluding the city of Detroit), which had decreased throughout the 80s, has begun to increase gradually, with a predicted 3.7% increase between 1990 and 2020.

Median Age in SEMCA Service Area

In the SEMCA service area, as in the rest of Michigan and the U.S., the trend is toward an aging population with fewer new workers entering the job market, resulting in an older workforce. As of 1990 (the most recent date for which data is available), the median age for the SEMCA service area was slightly higher than for the state of Michigan and the U.S.

Age distribution for the SEMCA service area

The ethnicity of the SEMCA service area has changed slightly between 1980 and 1990.

Percentage of the Population that are Non-White
The number and percentage of non-whites in the SEMCA service area remain low compared to the state of Michigan and the U.S.

In the SEMCA service area, 48% of the handicapped individuals are under the age of 45, and the unemployment rate among those willing to work but not employed is 31.4%

1990 census data indicates that there are 62,848 persons of working age with work disabilities in the SEMCA service area. (A handicapped individual is defined as an individual who has a physical or mental disability, which for such individual constitutes or results in a substantial handicap to employment.)

Michigan Rehabilitation Services in the SEMCA service area served 4,098 in 1995 and increased that to 4,391 in 1999. Of those numbers, 904 were youth in 1995 and 1,344 were youth in 1999. (The category “youth” includes all customers ages 14 - 21, as well as those ages 22 - 26 who were referred by a special education program.)

In 1995, 15.1% (including 11.8% of youth) were successfully rehabilitated. (A client is considered successfully rehabilitated if he or she remains on the job for a minimum of 90 days.) In 1999, 15.3% (including 9.4% of youth) were successfully rehabilitated.

2. Economic and Business Conditions General economic - employment trends by occupation and worker earnings; focus on significant growth, demand, shortages, and changes in content of work - Page B-6 Key labor market measures - unemployment and labor force; occupational and skill trends; supply-demand analysis to determine surpluses and shortages

Labor Force Trends 1990 - 1998
Area	1990	1994	1998	1990 - 1998 Percent Change
SEMCA service area	609,825	614,175	639,150	4.8
Michigan	4,598,000	4,823,000	5,029,000	9.4
United States	125,840,000	131,062,000	137,674,000	9.4

Source: Michigan Department of Career Development Office of Labor Market Information

The size of the civilian labor force (those able and willing to work) in the SEMCA service area continues to grow, although more slowly than those of Michigan and the United States.

Employment Trends 1990 - 1998
Area	1990	1994	1998	1990 - 1998 Percent Change
SEMCA service area	578,925	591,050	624,075	7.8
Michigan	4,248,000	4,539,000	4,835,000	13.8
United States	118,793,000	123,065,000	131,464,000	10.7

Source: Michigan Department of Career Development Office of Labor Market Information

The number of people who are currently employed is growing more slowly in the SEMCA service area and in Michigan than in the U.S. as a whole.

Employment by Industrial Class 1990 - 2020
	1990	2000	2010	2020	Change Number	Change Percent
Total Employment	614067	691461	734529	734284	120217	19.6
Ag, Min, Nat Res	7607	8489	9003	9395	1788	23.5
Manufacturing	147421	147297	141549	125918	-21503	-14.6
Trans., Commun. & Utilities	40747	41235	44973	46088	5341	13.1
Wholesale Trade	30194	36940	43942	46051	15857	52.6
Retail Trade	134768	141171	148018	144603	9835	7.3
Finan., Insur. & Real Estate	35589	41869	46881	49883	14294	40.2
Services	205037	260478	285312	296999	91962	44.8
Pub Administration	12704	13982	14851	15347	2643	20.8

Source: SEMCOG, 2020 Regional Development Forecast

For the SEMCA service area, as for the state of Michigan and the U.S., the number of jobs continues to increase due to a strong economy. The largest increases in southeast Michigan are in service industries, with substantial decreases in manufacturing. One exception is Monroe County, where there is a slight increase in manufacturing jobs.

The U.S. economy is projected to generate nearly 19 million new jobs over the period from 1996 to 2006. Services will contribute to more job growth than all other industry divisions combined. Nationwide, including Michigan and the SEMCA service area, the shortage of workers is greatest in technical fields and in the area of health sciences.

It is predicted that job gains for the period from 1990 to 2010 will be approximately 33% in Monroe County and 18% in Wayne County (excluding the city of Detroit).

The Midfield Terminal and associated projects at Wayne County Detroit Metropolitan Airport are expected to create 25,000 new jobs in the SEMCA service area in the next ten to fifteen years. In addition, the new Cabela's Megastore, expected to open in October 2000 in Monroe County, will add another 600 jobs. The majority of these will be in service industries.

Civilian Labor Force by Demographic Group - 1998
Demographic Group	Civilian Labor Force	Total Employment	Total Unemployment	Unemployment Rate
Total	639,150	624,075	15,075	2.4
Male 16+	355,825	346,724	9,101	2.6
16 - 19	19,732	18,341	1,391	7.0
20 - 24	35,294	33,690	1,604	4.5
25 - 54	256,038	250,710	5,329	2.1
55 - 64	36,442	35,782	660	1.8
65 Plus	8,319	8,201	118	1.4
Female 16+	283,325	277,351	5,974	2.1
16 - 19	18,574	17,567	1,008	5.4
20 - 24	32,393	31,453	939	2.9
25 - 54	199,646	196,058	3,588	1.8
55 - 64	25,987	25,646	341	1.3
65 Plus	6,725	6,627	98	1.5
White Male	334,719	326,946	7,774	2.3
White Female	262,797	257,934	4,863	1.9
Black Male	14,066	12,934	1,133	8.1
Black Female	14,953	14,015	938	6.3
Other Male	7,039	6,845	195	2.8
Other Female	5,575	5,403	172	3.1
Hispanic Male	6,520	6,315	205	3.1
Hispanic Female	5,004	4,858	147	2.9

Source: Michigan Department of Career Development Office of Labor Market Information

The annual average unemployment rate for the SEMCA service area was 2.3% in 1999. This is lower than the state annual average of 3.8% and the national annual average of 4.2% in the same year.

In general, unemployment rates for Hispanic and African American workers are much higher than for whites. Unemployment for all youth age 16 - 19 is more than three times that of adult workers.

The growing skills gap between employer needs and available job seekers continues to be a serious problem both locally and across the U.S. The lack of qualified workers has become an increasingly larger barrier to expansion:

• In 1993, 27% of companies reported that skills shortages were a barrier to growth. In 1998, that number rose to 69%.
• As recently as the 1950s, 20 percent of the workforce was professional, 20 percent was skilled, and 60 percent was unskilled. By 1997, professionals continue to be about 20 percent of the workforce, but less than 20 percent were unskilled and more than 60 percent were skilled workers. This shift in the economy and workforce is expected to continue into the 21st century.
• In a recent survey, the American Management Association learned that "U.S. corporations that tested job applicants in 1999 for basic skills found 38 percent lacked 'the ability to read instructions, write reports and/or do arithmetic at a level adequate to perform common workplace tasks.' In 1997, the figure stood at 23 percent. These findings reflect the higher skill set required in today's workplace.
• Immigration and Naturalization (INS) H1B waiver requests in Michigan since the beginning of 1999 indicate over 20 skill shortage areas identified by Michigan Employers. Most of these jobs are in the Information Technology, Health Specialties, and High Technology Areas. SEMCA region training providers have not yet redesigned their skill training programs to begin to meet this increased demand.

3. Education and Training Describe current status and trends in the Career Development System Employment by Level of Education Standards and Testing Customer Satisfaction

Geographically, the SEMCA service area covers Wayne County, with the exception of the city of Detroit, and Monroe County. Unlike the majority of Workforce Development Boards, the SEMCA service area is made up of:
42 School Districts
2 Intermediate School Districts
4 Charter Schools

Information regarding the status of schools in the SEMCA region, please see Part 2-Career Development System

Standards and Benchmarks
The Michigan Department of Education has published its Career and Employability Skills, which comprises proposed standards and benchmarks designed to provide for a more comprehensive delivery of instruction.

The Workforce Investment Act
The Workforce Investment Act is an example of the trend toward decentralization, or devolution, from federal level to states, giving more responsibility and decision-making authority for many federal programs to the states.

4. Technological Significant factors expected to influence the career development system

There are numerous issues surrounding the impact of technology on the career development system:

• Technology opens the door for self-paced, individualized instruction and student-centered learning.
• The World Wide Web makes research more accessible as well as removing the boundaries of school or library walls.
• In addition to offering on-line degree programs to higher education students, distance learning provides high school students the opportunity to take college level advanced placement classes online through the Michigan Virtual University (MVU). A number of local community colleges have partnered with MVU.
• A proposed Michigan Virtual High School would allow students to take classes that couldn't be offered in a traditional classroom because there wouldn’t be enough students taking the class to warrant using a room and paying a teacher. This would be especially welcome in small or poor districts that can't afford to provide some classes

But, there are serious concerns locally, statewide, and nationally about a technology gap that may cause low-income families to be left behind in taking advantage of the advances in technology. This “digital divide” breaks along many fault lines, including education, geography, and income.

School districts in the SEMCA service area are attempting to provide more access to technology for their students, although that is only the beginning of the story.

As always, funding and infrastructure play a large role in how much technology can be provided by any district. Districts in the SEMCA service area are looking for ways to support the technology that they know is crucial to educating their students.

The taxpayers in Monroe took a large step in the right direction when they passed a milage specifically for the purpose of improving technology education in the schools.

Michigan Technology Content Standards
The issue of technology is more than computer literacy, however. Michigan recently approved a Technology Content Standards document that clarifies what is expected in the area of technology integration in all facets of education for students.

Teacher Training in Technology
Teacher training in technology is another important issue that must be addressed before schools can successfully meet the requirements set forth by the Michigan Technology Content Standards. Teacher training universities need to become aware of what new teachers are lacking technologically and take action to remedy the situation. Many current teachers in the SEMCA service area urgently need professional development in order to take advantage of the technology provided in their schools.

5. Political/Legal Factors such as vouchers, charter schools, occupational safety and health, youth employment regulations, etc.

• Vouchers and charter schools continue to be controversial. Our region has examples of very successful charter school models, some of which are directly chartered or supported by local entities.
• The shortage of workers makes it tempting for employers to ignore the youth employment regulations.
• The MEAP test remains a point of contention between those who favor it and those who are opposed to the Meap or standardized testing in general, particularly now that scholarship monies are attached to success in the MEAP.
• The SEMCA region has multiple districts, some of which have relatively small numbers. Smaller districts are under pressure to reduce class size and/or to improve buildings and technology but have been limited in their attempts to do so by repeated milage failures.
• We continue to look for ways to leverage resources among districts to give all students the best education?

6. Socio-cultural Factors such as shifting consumer preferences, family composition, parental attitudes about college/non-college jobs, how young people learn about careers, worker values in time of labor shortage

The number of households in the SEMCA service area, as in Michigan and the U.S., is growing faster than the population. SEMCOG predicts that households in Monroe County will increase by 47% from 1980 to 2020 and that households in Wayne County (except Detroit) will increase by 19%. Factors contributing to this trend include women having fewer children, more people living alone as a result of high divorce rates and delayed marriages, and improving health and longevity resulting in more older persons living more years in their own homes.

Household income is the sum total income of all persons in a household. Household income quartiles consist of four income classes:

Quartile 1 Less than $16,717
Quartile 2 $16,717 to $34,302
Quartile 3 $34,303 to $55,585
Quartile 4 More than $55,585

Households by Income Quartile
	1990	2020	Change	Percent
Monroe
Income Quartile 1	10,473	13,962	3,489	33.3
Income Quartile 2	12,238	17,026	4,788	39.1
Income Quartile 3	13,295	18,791	5,496	41.3
Income Quartile 4	10,507	13,976	3,469	33.0
Wayne (except Detroit)
Income Quartile 1	85,687	115,613	29,926	34.9
Income Quartile 2	104,678	134,978	30,300	28.9
Income Quartile 3	109,610	115,085	5,475	5.0
Income Quartile 4	106,459	99,794	-6,665	-6.3

The number of households in all income quartiles is expected to increase in Monroe County between 1990 and 2020. It is predicted that Wayne County (excluding Detroit) will increase in the number of households in the lower two quartiles, increase slightly in the third quartile, and decrease in the fourth quartile in the same time period.

The impact of this data is that it illustrates an increase in the number of “working poor” in the SEMCA service area, causing the income gap to widen.

Income Gap
Nationally, in Michigan, and in the SEMCA service area, there is an expansion in the ranks of the “working poor.” Mostly former welfare recipients, these are workers whose hourly wages on a full-time basis are too low to lift a family of four out of poverty. (The poverty line is estimated nationally at $16,655.) Michigan's personal income tax, which is applied to two-person family income beginning at $11,800, has a negative impact on this segment of the population as well.

In addition, there is a growing income gap between families in the middle quartiles of income and those in the highest quartile, reflecting the growing gap in income and wealth between persons who are sufficiently skilled/educated to take advantage of the current economy’s opportunities, and those who lack such skills/education.

Some other socio-cultural factors that play a role:

• School Funding - not just a local issues, but a state issue as well
• What is the effect of manufactured housing and other issues on the tax base
• Although 3 out of 4 parents say it’s important for their children to get a 4-year degree, only 24 of every 100 fifth-graders will have earned a bachelor’s degree six years after high school.
• Due to the high-tech worker shortage, less value is being placed on traditional four-year degrees and more on life-long learning. Because knowledge and skill are becoming more obsolete more quickly, people are toggling back and forth between work and school.
• What are Community Colleges doing to help these “togglers” become completers - a new definition of success
• Volunteerism (required or otherwise)
• English as a Second Language - not native English speaking students have unique needs, and are becoming an increasingly larger portion of the population in the SEMCA service area.
• Polarization - while workplaces have become more diverse, the same is not true of the K-12 education system in the region.

7. Transportation The relationship between infrastructure and economic development cannot occur without a sufficient transportation network.

• A strategic regional setting is of little advantage unless an adequate transportation system is available to connect the local community to surrounding areas.
• Failure to have a single transit system makes it extremely difficult for people making the transition from welfare to work.

8. Public Safety Among all the issues facing students, and the public in general, safety continues to be the foremost concern.

• Violence in schools continues to be a cause for alarm among students and parents. Schools are taking steps from installing metal detectors to instituting dress codes in an attempt to reduce the incidences of violence in local schools
• Gangs and drugs are also factors in the public safety issue. Programs such as D.A.R.E. and S.A.D.D. (originally Students Against Driving Drunk, now renamed Students Against Destructive Decisions) are sponsored by local police departments and schools as well as community organizations to battle these insidious problems.

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